Approach to simulation of annual runoff process for estimation of main water reservoir

Document Type : Original Article


1 Faculty of Water Engineering, Gonbad Kavous University, Gonbad Kavous, Iran

2 Faculty of Water Engineering, Russian State Agrarian University- Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, Moscow, Russia


Today, demand for water is on the rise everywhere in the world, particularly in arid and semiarid countries including Iran. About 70 % area of Iran suffer somehow from the lack of precipitation. The research is dedicated to estimation of main probabilistic characteristics of river flow regulation by perspective water reservoirs with help of annual runoff process simulation by Monte-Carlo method. Results of the research allows do conclusion about possibility of application Monte-Carlo method for simulation of annual runoff and about necessary of runoff regulation by water reservoirs on the rivers of Iran – Gharasu and Hablirud. Their annual runoff regime is differing significantly. From the estimated 1000-year hydrological series were formed sequences of 2-years, 3-years, 4-years and 5-years periods. Preliminary analysis of the runoff difference integral curve and planned water loss showed that under the current situation, several consecutive deficit years are likely to exist in a row.